With the holiday season just about a month away, the U.S. retail industry and the entire American economy is hoping for a strong holiday shopping season. The holiday shopping season, traditionally considered to be the period from Black Friday (this year November 26) to Christmas Day (December 26), is usually a period of high revenue but also high expectations for companies in the U.S.A.
In this new post-recession world the outcome of the holiday shopping season is unpredictable. According to the Erie Times-News on October 24th, this year the American consumer plans to spend on average $688.87 on holiday shopping, only 1% more than what the American consumer planned to spend in 2009 (www.goerie.com). Junior Ben Zhang speculated that “I don’t think [that there will be good results for retail], mostly because of the lack of confidence in the economy. The question of unemployment still remains unresolved and as a result, people will still be reluctant to spend money.”
Don Connelly said that his family will “probably not” spend a lot of money on holiday shopping “just to save money for next year”. Many Upper St. Clair students will be spending less than they did, say, five years ago, even though Upper St. Clair is significantly more affluent than the rest of Pennsylvania, with USC’s average household income being $111,502 while Pennsylvania’s average is $50,713 (www.city-data.com).
The fundamental question is: will the economy’s rebirth be good enough to restore consumer confidence? In the month of October the Consumer Confidence Index increased by 1.6pts, a decent amount (www.conference-board.org). Though, a monthly increase of 1.6 pts would absolutely not be enough to convince buyers to open their checkbooks and hearts during the holiday season.
Finally, the rebounding of the economy must be analyzed. In September, durable goods orders rose (www.businessweek.com). The economy has improved decently, and Wall Street has becoming relatively healthy due to liberal amounts of government involvement. But an economic rebound doesn’t necessarily guarantee a strong holiday shopping season.